Appendix t — The Cost of a Nuclear Bomb vs. The Cost of a Human Life

The Cost of a Nuclear Bomb vs. The Cost of a Human Life

This analysis calculates the cost per death for a modern nuclear weapon and uses that figure to estimate the potential human cost of a $2.69 trillion military budget—the amount that would remain after redirecting 1% to health research as proposed by the 1% Treaty.

I. Cost of a Modern Nuclear Weapon

The cost of a single nuclear warhead is difficult to pinpoint, as it is often bundled into larger modernization and delivery system programs. However, we can use the B61-12 Life Extension Program as a credible benchmark.

• Unit Cost: The B61-12 bomb has an estimated unit cost of $27.5 million.
• Program Cost: The total program cost for 400-500 bombs is estimated at $11 billion.

For this analysis, we will use the conservative unit cost of $27.5 million per bomb.

II. Estimated Casualties from a Nuclear Detonation

The number of deaths from a nuclear detonation depends on the weapon’s yield, the population density of the target, and whether it is an airburst or ground burst. Modern strategic warheads are many times more powerful than the bombs used on Hiroshima and Nagasaki.

A widely used tool for modeling these effects is NUKEMAP, created by historian of science Alex Wellerstein. A simulation of a single, modern 300-kiloton W87 warhead detonated over a dense urban center like Manhattan reveals a catastrophic scale of destruction.

• Estimated Fatalities: A surface blast is projected to cause approximately 1,619,570 fatalities.

This figure includes immediate deaths from the blast, heat, and initial radiation, but does not account for long-term deaths from fallout, disease, or the collapse of medical infrastructure.

III. Calculation: The Cost Per Death

Using these figures, we can calculate the approximate cost to kill one person with a nuclear weapon.

• Cost per Bomb: $27,500,000
• Deaths per Bomb: 1,619,570
• Cost per Death: $27,500,000 / 1,619,570 = ~$16.98 per person

This means that for the price of a cup of coffee, our current military apparatus can kill one person.

IV. The Human Cost of a $2.69 Trillion Budget

If 1% of the global military budget were redirected, $2.69 trillion would remain. We can now calculate the potential human cost of that remaining budget.

1. Number of Bombs:

   • $2,690,000,000,000 / $27,500,000 per bomb = 97,818 bombs

2. Total Potential Deaths:

   • 97,818 bombs * 1,619,570 deaths per bomb = ~158,421,000,000 people

With the $2.69 trillion left over after funding the War on Disease, global military spending could still theoretically purchase enough nuclear weapons to kill 158.4 billion people, or approximately 20 times the entire population of Earth (based on 8 billion current population).

This calculation highlights the grotesque inefficiency and overkill capacity of the current global military apparatus.

V. Summary of Key Findings

Cost-Effectiveness of Nuclear Weapons:

• Cost per death: $16.98 (less than a cup of coffee)
• B61-12 unit cost: $27.5 million per bomb
• Deaths per W87 warhead (Manhattan): 1,619,570 people

Impact of 1% Treaty:

• Current military budget: $2.72 trillion/year
• After 1% redirect: $2.69 trillion remaining (99%)
• Potential deaths with remaining budget: 158.4 billion people
• Earth’s population: ~8 billion
• Overkill capacity: 20× Earth’s population (or 19.8× to be precise)

This means that even after redirecting 1% to medical research, the remaining 99% of military spending has enough destructive capacity to theoretically kill everyone on Earth approximately 20 times over.

VI. Comparison: Nuclear vs. Conventional Weapons Cost-Effectiveness

For context, how does the cost per death compare across different weapon systems?

Small Arms (Rifles/Machine Guns)

Ammunition Expenditure:

• U.S. forces fired approximately 250,000 bullets for every insurgent killed in Iraq and Afghanistan
• Cost per 5.56mm NATO round: ~$0.40 (2024 military procurement price)

Cost per Death:

• 250,000 bullets × $0.40 = $100,000 per death

Artillery (155mm Howitzer Shells)

Standard Round Expenditure:

• Assuming multiple rounds per target engagement (typical fire missions use 10-50 rounds)
• Standard 155mm shell cost: ~$8,000-$14,000 per round (2024 prices)

Cost per Death (Estimated):

• Assuming 20 rounds per casualty: 20 × $10,000 = $200,000 per death

Precision-Guided Munitions

Excalibur GPS-Guided Artillery:

• Cost per round: $176,624 (FY-22)
• Higher accuracy means fewer rounds needed
• Cost per Death: ~$177,000-$350,000 (1-2 rounds typically sufficient)

Air-Launched Missiles:

• AMRAAM missile: ~$1 million per unit
• AARGM-ER: ~$6.1 million per unit
• Cost per Death: $1-6 million+ (depending on target type)

Nuclear Weapons

Nuclear Warhead:

• B61-12 cost: $27.5 million
• Deaths per detonation (urban center): ~1.6 million
• Cost per Death: $16.98

Comparative Summary

Weapon Type	Cost per Death	Efficiency Rank
Nuclear warhead (urban)	$16.98	1st (most “efficient”)
Small arms (250k rounds)	$100,000	2nd
Standard artillery	$200,000	3rd
Precision-guided artillery	$177,000-$350,000	4th
Air-launched missiles	$1-6 million+	5th (least “efficient”)

Key Finding: Nuclear weapons are approximately 5,900× more “cost-effective” at killing than small arms, and 10,000-350,000× more “cost-effective” than precision missiles—which explains why $2.69 trillion in military spending has such enormous destructive capacity.

This grotesque “efficiency” calculation exists purely to illustrate the absurdity of military spending priorities. The fact that we can calculate a “cost per death” metric at all—and that we’ve optimized it—demonstrates how thoroughly we’ve industrialized human destruction instead of human healing.

---