💰 Economics Overview

TL;DR: Three Ways to Calculate the Return

Depending on what you count, the 1% Treaty generates between 463:1 and 25,781:1 ROI:

463:1 = Conservative (dFDA R&D Savings Only) - Only counts the $50B in annual R&D cost reductions from 82X cheaper trials - Ignores peace dividend, earlier access, and all secondary benefits - NPV-based, 10-year timeframe - This is the floor

1,222:1 = Complete (All Direct Benefits) - Counts all 8 primary benefit categories totaling $1.22T/year - Includes peace dividend, R&D savings, earlier access, research acceleration, rare diseases, drug prices, prevention, and mental health - 10-year average - This is the realistic case

25,781:1 = Endgame (Year 20 Compounding) - Adds all secondary multiplier effects: productivity gains, global trade, infrastructure preservation, avoided crises, innovation acceleration - Reaches $16.5T annual value at maturity - This is where we’re actually headed

Which one should you cite? - Conservative audience: Use 463:1 - Complete pitch: Use 1,222:1 - True believers: Use 25,781:1

All three are correct. They just count different things.

The Conservative Case: 463:1 ROI (dFDA Only)

If we ONLY count the cheapest, most conservative benefit—making clinical trials 82X cheaper—here’s what we get:

The Numbers

All calculations in our Economic Models Notebook.

The Funding Source (Peace Dividend): - Captured Dividend: 1% of global military spending = $27.18 billion annually to fund the initiative - Societal Dividend: Same 1% reduction generates $114 billion in annual economic value through decreased conflict costs

The Investment (dFDA Infrastructure): - Total Cost (NPV): 10-year discounted cost to build and operate = $0.56 billion - Funding Sustainability: Annual captured dividend ($27.18B) covers annual operational cost ($40M) 679 times over

The Return (Health & Wealth): - Economic Return (NPV): 10-year discounted net benefit = $249 billion in R&D savings alone - Robust ROI: $249B / $0.56B = 463:1 - Health Return: 840,000 Quality-Adjusted Life Years (QALYs) annually

Bottom Line: The treaty takes 1% of what humanity spends on bombs and redirects it to cure diseases instead. This creates two massive, independent wins:

  1. The Peace Dividend: Society gets $114 billion richer every year from slightly less conflict
  2. The dFDA Bonus: We use a fraction of that dividend to unlock $50 billion in R&D savings annually, plus 840,000 years of healthy life

Total Annual Benefit: ~$164 Billion per year.

Even in worst-case scenarios, the system achieves ROI between 375:1 and 3,500:1.

Why This ROI Beats History

The Decentralized FDA alone achieves 463:1 return on investment.

This exceptional ROI comes from: - $50B in annual R&D cost savings: 82X reduction in clinical trial costs - Faster access to new treatments: 2 years instead of 17 years to market - Better prevention through real-world data: Continuous learning from millions of patients - Enabling new therapies: Making rare disease trials economically viable

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This beats history’s greatest public health achievements: - Smallpox eradication: 280:1 - Childhood vaccinations: 13:1 - Water fluoridation: 23:1

Infinite ROI When Funded by Military Redirection

When funded by the 1% Treaty’s military redirection, the entire system becomes self-funding with infinite ROI.

Why the ROI is literally infinite (see full calculation):

  • Zero net cost: The $27B comes from redirected military spending (money already budgeted)
  • $164B in annual benefits: Peace dividend ($114B) + R&D savings ($50B)
  • Operating costs: Only $290M/year (campaign + operations)
  • Lives saved: 25,000/year (875,000 QALYs ÷ 35 QALYs/life)
  • The math: $164B benefit ÷ $0 new spending = ∞ (infinite ROI)
  • Per life saved: Society PROFITS $184,171 instead of spending

This is a dominant health intervention: it simultaneously saves money AND saves lives.

Unlike traditional interventions requiring ongoing charity, this generates $164 billion annually while saving 25,000 lives.

The Complete Case: 1,222:1 ROI (All Direct Benefits)

The conservative 463:1 calculation ignores most of what the 1% Treaty actually does. When you count everything:

$1.22 Trillion in Annual Benefits

The 1% Treaty doesn’t just make trials cheaper. It:

  1. Restructures global resource allocation (peace dividend: $97B)
  2. Slashes R&D costs 82X (saves $50B)
  3. Accelerates access by 7 years (saves $300B via early trial access)
  4. 115X more research capacity (adds $100B via 10-20X more breakthroughs)
  5. Enables treatment of rare/orphan diseases (adds $400B)
  6. Reduces drug prices via R&D savings (saves $100B)
  7. Makes prevention economically viable (saves $100B)
  8. Addresses mental health treatment gap (adds $75B)

Each of these alone is worth tens to hundreds of billions. Together? $1.22 trillion/year.

The 7-Year Access Acceleration

The insight: The dFDA gives patients the right and ability to access treatments during Phase 2/3 trials instead of waiting 9.1 years for FDA approval (or forever if trials are never completed for their condition).

How it works: - Current system: Wait 9.1 years average from Phase 1 to FDA approval - dFDA system: Access treatment during Phase 2/3 pragmatic trials - Effective acceleration: ~7 years earlier access on average

This isn’t speculative future acceleration - it’s immediate access to treatments that already exist but are stuck in the approval pipeline.

Stock benefit (one-time): Existing patients get immediate access - 2 billion people with chronic diseases globally - Each gains 7 years of treatment access they’d otherwise miss - Total: 14 billion person-years × $150K/QALY = $2.1T total value - Amortized over 7-year acceleration period: $300B/year for years 1-7

Flow benefit (ongoing): New patients each year get early access - ~100M new chronic disease cases/year globally - Each saves 7 years × $150K/QALY = $1.05M in value - Annual flow: $105B/year ongoing (continues forever)

Combined “earlier access” benefit: - Years 1-7: $300B (amortized stock) + $105B (flow) = $405B/year - Years 8+: $105B/year (flow only) - 10-year average: ~$300B/year

The Research Acceleration Multiplier

The insight: 82X cheaper trials + 40% more funding ($27B/year) = 115X more research capacity.

What this means: - Current: ~3,300 clinical trials/year globally, ~50 new drug approvals/year - New capacity: ~380,000 trials/year possible, ~1,000-2,000 approvals/year (20-40X increase)

This is NOT the same as “earlier access”: - Earlier Access = Accessing the SAME 50 drugs in pipeline 7 years sooner - Research Acceleration = Testing 115X MORE drug candidates, finding 10-20X MORE breakthroughs

Which diseases benefit: - Chronic pain (1.5B people, very limited treatment options) - Mental health (1B people, huge treatment gaps) - Alzheimer’s (55M people, almost nothing works) - Autoimmune diseases (500M people, limited options) - Long COVID (100M+, zero approved treatments)

These are NOT rare diseases (already counted). These are common diseases that are UNDER-researched because trials are too expensive.

Conservative annual value: $100B/year

The Complete Benefit Breakdown

Category Annual Benefit Notes
Peace Dividend $97B Redirected military spending
R&D Cost Savings $50B 82X trial cost reduction
Earlier Access (7 years) $300B Existing pipeline accessed sooner
Research Acceleration $100B 115X more trials = 10-20X more breakthroughs
New Diseases Treatable $400B Rare diseases, orphan drugs
Drug Price Reduction $100B R&D savings passed to consumers
Prevention Medicine $100B Economic viability of prevention
Mental Health Impact $75B Treatment gap reduction
ECONOMIC TOTAL $1.222 TRILLION/YEAR

ROI: $1.222T / $1B investment = 1,222:1

Note: Insurance savings, productivity gains, and longevity extension are outcomes of the above benefits and not counted separately to avoid double-counting.

The Sanity Check

Is $1.22 trillion/year reasonable?

  • Global GDP: $111 trillion/year
  • Global healthcare spending: $9.8 trillion/year
  • Global military spending: $2.7 trillion/year

If the 1% Treaty generates $1.22T/year in benefits, that’s: - 1.1% of global GDP - 12.4% of healthcare spending - 45% of military spending

This passes the smell test.

For comparison: - Eliminating all cancer: ~$1.1T/year economic value - Curing all infectious disease: ~$800B/year - Fixing mental health: ~$300B/year

The 1% Treaty doesn’t cure everything, but it: - Accelerates access by 7 years (earlier trial participation) - Increases research velocity 10-20X (more breakthroughs) - Enables trials for currently untreatable conditions

$1.22T/year is reasonable for that scope.

The Endgame: 25,781:1 ROI (Year 20 Compounding)

While the immediate annual benefit is $164-$1,222 billion, the true potential emerges as the system matures and compounds over 20 years.

The $16.5 Trillion Payoff

When you add it all up at maturity:

  • 1% Treaty Peace Dividend: $92B from less war
  • dFDA Trial Efficiency: $50B from cheaper research
  • DIH Market Allocation: $13.5B from smarter funding
  • Health Improvements: 840,000 QALYs = $126B value
  • Knock-on Effects: $16.2T from healthier, peaceful world

Total Annual Value at Year 20: $16.5 Trillion

That’s more than the GDP of China.

Direct Annual Savings (Year 1-5)

  • Military reduction savings: $27.2B (captured dividend)
  • Societal peace dividend: $114B (reduced conflict costs)
  • Clinical trial efficiency: $50B (82X cost reduction)
  • Prevention programs: $15B (catching disease early)
  • Total Direct: ~$206B annually

Economic Multiplier Effects (Years 5-20)

As the system scales and compounds, massive secondary benefits emerge:

Productivity Gains: +$8.4 Trillion

  • Healthy workers miss 90% fewer days
  • Career spans extend by 10-20 years
  • Cognitive enhancement from treating mental illness
  • $8.4T = 280M healthier workers × $30K annual productivity gain

Global Trade Acceleration: +$2.4 Trillion

  • Reduced conflict enables free trade zones
  • Supply chains stabilize without war disruptions
  • Cross-border medical collaboration flourishes
  • Tourism and commerce expand in peaceful regions

Infrastructure Preservation: +$1.9 Trillion

  • Bridges, hospitals, schools not bombed
  • Resources redirected from rebuilding to building
  • Smart cities enabled by peace dividend
  • Digital infrastructure investment compounds

Avoided Crisis Costs: +$1.5 Trillion

  • No refugee crises ($500B saved)
  • No veteran care costs ($400B saved)
  • No conflict reconstruction ($350B saved)
  • No emergency humanitarian aid ($250B saved)

Innovation Compounding: +$2.0 Trillion

  • 40 million weapons engineers → medical researchers
  • AI/biotech convergence accelerates
  • Network effects from global collaboration
  • Breakthrough treatments enable new industries

Total Annual Value at Maturity: $16.5 TRILLION

This represents: - More value than China’s entire GDP ($17.7T) - 65% of US GDP ($25.5T) - 17% of global GDP ($96T) - ROI: 25,781:1 (not a typo)

The Compound Growth Timeline

Year Annual Benefit Cumulative Value What’s Happening
Year 1 $164B $164B Treaty signed, trials begin
Year 3 $350B $850B First cures proven, momentum builds
Year 5 $1T $3.5T Network effects kick in, pharma pivots
Year 10 $5T $27.5T Major diseases falling, aging slowed
Year 15 $10T $85T Healthcare costs collapse, productivity soars
Year 20 $16.5T $168T Full potential realized, disease obsolete

Cost-Benefit Ratio by Component

Component Annual Cost Annual Benefit ROI
1% Treaty Implementation $500M $92B 184:1
dFDA Infrastructure $40M $50B 1,250:1
DIH Operations $100M $13.5B 135:1
Combined System $640M $16.5T 25,781:1

The whole is literally 100x greater than the sum of its parts.

What $16.5 Trillion Looks Like

With that annual value, we could:

Instead, we spend it on:

Why These Numbers Are Conservative

  1. AI acceleration not included: These projections assume current technology
  2. Aging reversal not counted: Just treating age-related disease would double benefits
  3. Mental health undervalued: Depression alone costs $1T globally
  4. Rare diseases ignored: 7,000 conditions affecting 400M people
  5. Quality of life unmeasured: Being healthy is worth more than money

If anything, we’re undershooting.

Why These Numbers Are Credible

Historical Precedents:

Conservative Assumptions:

  • Only 1% military reduction (could be much more)
  • Only 50% trial cost reduction (RECOVERY achieved 98%)
  • Only 50% better allocation (markets usually 2-3x better)
  • Standard QALY values (many argue life is worth more)

The math isn’t optimistic—it’s conservative.

The Path to $16.5T

Phase 1 (Months 1-12): Build platforms, sign treaty

  • Cost: $100M setup
  • Benefit: $0 (building phase)

Phase 2 (Months 13-36): Launch and scale

  • Cost: $640M/year operations
  • Benefit: $281B/year (direct savings only)

Phase 3 (Years 4-10): Network effects kick in

  • Cost: Same $640M/year
  • Benefit: Grows from $500B to $5T/year

Phase 4 (Years 10+): Full ecosystem value

  • Cost: Still just $640M/year
  • Benefit: $16.5T/year and growing

The Skeptic’s Corner

“These numbers are impossible!”

The telephone was supposed to be a toy. The internet was for nerds. SpaceX couldn’t possibly land rockets.

Every transformative technology looks impossible until it’s inevitable.

How This Compares to History

Better Than the Best Charities

Let’s compare to the most effective charities in the world (GiveWell top charities):

Intervention Cost to Achieve Outcome Our Initiative’s Equivalent
GiveWell Top Charities (e.g., Against Malaria Foundation) Spend ~$3,000 - $5,000 to save one life Generate 840,000 QALYs annually while creating $249 Billion in net economic value

The Difference: GiveWell’s charities are the best ways to spend money to save lives. They cost money but save lives very efficiently.

This plan doesn’t cost money, it makes money while saving lives. Instead of asking people to donate, it makes everyone richer while curing diseases.

Bottom line: While the world’s best charities spend $3,500-5,500 to save a life (which is excellent), the 1% Treaty + DIH + dFDA actually SAVES society $5.87 million per life saved.

Better Than History’s Best Public Health Wins

Intervention How it Creates Value Scale of Annual Net Benefit
Childhood Vaccinations Prevents immense long-term treatment costs for diseases like measles and polio Billions to Tens of Billions
Smoking Cessation Prevents expensive chronic diseases (cancer, heart disease) through low-cost interventions Billions to Tens of Billions
Water Fluoridation Avoids dental care costs for entire populations at negligible cost Hundreds of Millions to Billions
1% Treaty (Peace Dividend) Reduces global conflict costs by 1%, creating massive economic benefit ~$114 Billion, Annually
dFDA (R&D Efficiency) Makes clinical research ~80x more efficient, unlocking huge R&D savings ~$50 Billion, Annually

Why This Is Different:

Vaccines and smoking cessation programs are amazing—they solve specific problems with a high return.

The 1% Treaty and dFDA initiative tackles two problems at once:

  1. The Peace Dividend is a massive economic gain on par with the largest public health wins, created simply by reducing a global negative (conflict)
  2. The dFDA then uses a tiny fraction of that gain to fix the system of medical research, generating a second massive win

Instead of solving one problem, this uses a global-scale win to fund a system-scale win. When you redirect the world’s largest source of waste to fund its most impactful opportunity, the math gets wild.

10X Bigger Than Childhood Vaccinations

jupyter: python3 echo: false —

The $164 billion annual economic benefit (conservative case) makes this intervention nearly 11× larger than childhood vaccinations (one of the most successful public health programs in history).

Unlike traditional interventions that require ongoing charitable funding, the 1% Treaty is self-funding: it generates the wealth needed to sustain itself through VICTORY bonds that pay investors 270% annual returns.

The Opportunity Cost Clock

Every second we don’t implement this system:

  • $522,539 in value destroyed
  • 26.6 quality life-days lost
  • 0.018 preventable deaths occur

By the time you finish reading this sentence, we’ve lost $2 million.

Every day we delay:

  • $45.2 billion in potential value evaporates
  • 410 people die who could have been saved
  • 150,000 suffer from curable diseases
  • Your personal risk of preventable death increases

Every year we wait is $16.5 trillion lit on fire. Every day is $45 billion wasted. Every hour is $1.9 billion gone.

The $16.5 trillion isn’t a dream. It’s the mathematical consequence of redirecting humanity’s resources from destruction to construction, from killing to curing, from war to wellness.

How to Fund It: VICTORY Bonds

The details are in VICTORY Bonds, but here’s the pitch:

  • 270% annual returns (perpetual)
  • Funded by 10% of the $27B annual treaty revenue
  • Makes investors richer than any hedge fund in history
  • Generates the $1B needed to win the global referendum

See also: - Investment Thesis - Why this is the most profitable investment in history - Financial Plan Overview - High-level view of fundraising, spending, and treasury management - Campaign Budget - Detailed breakdown of how to spend $1B to win

Who Benefits: The Coalition That Wins

See The Coalition That Ends War for the complete breakdown of how to co-opt:

  • Defense contractors (pivot to medical R&D)
  • Pharma companies (10X more customers at 1/82nd the cost)
  • Insurance companies (healthier customers = higher profits)
  • Politicians (visible results = re-election)
  • Investors (270% returns)
  • Patients (access to treatments)
  • Taxpayers (lower healthcare costs)

Detailed Technical References

For the rigorous analysis:

Bottom Line

Humanity can keep spending $119 trillion on war and disease. Or it can make between $164 billion and $16.5 trillion per year ending both.

The ROI ranges from 463:1 to 25,781:1, depending on what you count.