Appendix a โ ๐ฐ The 50/50 Savings Split
The 50/50 Health Savings Split: Making Cures More Profitable Than Treatments
Pharmaceutical companies arenโt evil. Theyโre just following incentives. Right now, the incentives say: โKeep people sick forever, bill monthly.โ
This chapter explains how to change those incentives so curing you becomes more profitable than milking you like a diseased cash cow until you die.
The Problem: Your Disease Is Their Annuity
Hereโs how pharma currently makes money:
Diabetes:
- Treatment cost: $500/month forever
- Patient lifespan with disease: 30 years
- Total revenue per patient: $180,000
- Number of patients: 37 million (US alone)
- Total addressable market: $6.66 trillion
A Cure Would Be Worth:
- One-time payment: Maybe $10,000
- Lost future revenue: $170,000 per patient
- CEOโs reaction: โFire whoever suggested thisโ
This is why weโve cured exactly zero chronic diseases since Hepatitis C in 2014. Itโs not a conspiracy. Itโs math.
The Solution: Split the Savings
Hereโs the simple fix: When a company cures a disease, they get 50% of the healthcare costs that would have been spent treating it.
The New Math:
- Healthcare system saves: $180,000 per diabetic
- Pharma company gets: $90,000 per cure
- Patient pays: $0-1,000 (covered by insurance)
- Everyone wins except: The disease
How It Works
Step 1: Calculate the True Cost of Disease
Every disease has a lifetime price tag:
| Disease | Average Lifetime Cost | Annual Deaths | Total Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Heart Disease | $750,000 | 695,000 | $521B |
| Cancer | $450,000 | 609,000 | $274B |
| Alzheimerโs | $580,000 | 120,000 | $70B |
| Diabetes | $180,000 | 102,000 | $18B |
| Total Top 4 | $490,000 avg | 1.5M | $883B |
These arenโt treatment costs. These are total economic costs: Healthcare, lost productivity, family burden, everything.
Step 2: Offer Half to Whoever Cures It
Simple contract:
- Cure the disease
- The system pays 50% of savings
- Payment over 10-20 years as savings materialize
- Verified by actual healthcare spending data
Step 3: Watch Capitalism Do Its Thing
Before:
- Diabetes treatment market: $500/month ร 37M people = $222B/year
- Incentive: Keep everyone diabetic forever
After:
- Diabetes cure market: $90,000 ร 37M people = $3.33 trillion
- Incentive: Cure everyone immediately
Suddenly, curing diabetes is worth 15X more than treating it.
Real-World Example: The Cancer Math
Letโs say Pfizer develops a universal cancer cure tomorrow.
Current Cancer Treatment Market:
- Annual revenue: $200 billion
- Growth rate: 7% annually
- 30-year NPV: $4.2 trillion
50/50 Cure Payment Model:
- Lives saved: 10 million annually
- Cost saved per life: $450,000
- Pfizerโs share: $225,000 per cure
- Annual payment: $2.25 trillion
- 10-year total: $22.5 trillion
The CEOโs Reaction: โCURE EVERYTHING. NOW.โ
Why Healthcare Systems Would Pay
โBut wait,โ you say, โwhy would insurance companies pay trillions for cures?โ
Because theyโre already paying more for treatments:
Insurance Company Perspective:
- Current: Pay $750,000 per heart disease patient
- With cure: Pay $375,000 once
- Savings: $375,000 per patient
- ROI: Instant 50% return
Itโs like buying something at half price. Youโd be stupid not to.
The Preventative Medicine Bonus
This model works even better for prevention:
Longevity Therapy Example:
- Delays aging by 10 years
- Reduces annual healthcare costs by $5,000/person
- 30-year savings: $150,000
- Developer payment: $75,000 per person
- Global market: 8 billion ร $75,000 = $600 trillion
Suddenly, keeping people healthy becomes the worldโs most valuable business.
How to Calculate Savings (The Non-Scammy Way)
For Specific Disease Cures
- Historical data: Average treatment cost for disease
- Multiply by: Number of patients who would have gotten it
- Subtract: Cost of cure delivery
- Split: 50/50
For Preventative Treatments
- Baseline: Current per-capita healthcare spending by age
- Treatment group: Actual spending after intervention
- Difference: The savings
- Split: 50/50
For Longevity Treatments
- Compare: Treated vs untreated population health costs
- Adjust for: Demographics and other factors
- Calculate: Net reduction in spending
- Split: 50/50
All verified by actual claims data. No estimates. No projections. Just math.
The Beautiful Incentive Cascade
Once one company succeeds:
Year 1: First diabetes cure, $3.3 trillion market created Year 2: Every pharma company pivots to cures Year 3: Heart disease cured Year 5: Cancer eliminated Year 10: Aging significantly slowed Year 20: Death becomes mostly optional
Each success makes the next one more inevitable. Itโs a greed avalanche in the right direction.
Objections from People Who Profit from Disease
โBut pharma companies need recurring revenue!โ
- Theyโll get it from the 50% payments over 10-20 years
- Plus new diseases will always emerge (thanks, evolution)
- Plus aging creates infinite demand
โThis would bankrupt healthcare systems!โ
- Theyโre already bankrupt from paying for treatments
- This cuts their costs in half
- Bankruptcy from success > bankruptcy from failure
โHow do we verify the savings?โ
- Every insurance claim is digital
- Match treated patients vs statistical controls
- Blockchain for transparency
- Fraud = lose all future payments
โWhat about rare diseases?โ
- Pool them together
- Same 50/50 split on aggregate savings
- Suddenly profitable to cure diseases affecting 12 people
Implementation: Surprisingly Easy
Step 1: Pass legislation allowing 50/50 contracts Step 2: Let insurance companies offer them Step 3: Watch pharma companies compete to cure everything Step 4: Try not to die before your disease gets cured
No new bureaucracy. No government funding. Just changing what we pay for.
The Global Impact
If implemented worldwide:
- Healthcare costs: Drop 50-75% within 20 years
- Human lifespan: Increase 20-40 years
- Economic productivity: Massive increase from healthy population
- Pharma profits: Higher than ever (but from cures, not suffering)
Why This Isnโt Already Happening
Simple: Nobodyโs incentivized to change the system.
- Politicians: Get donations from treatment companies
- Regulators: Revolving door with industry
- Insurance: Can always raise premiums
- Pharma: Making bank on suffering
- Patients: Too sick to organize
But the math is undeniable. The first country to implement this wins the future.
The Bottom Line
We donโt need to make pharmaceutical companies moral. We just need to make curing diseases more profitable than treating them.
50/50 savings split does exactly that.
Your diabetes: Worth $180,000 as a lifelong disease Your diabetes cure: Worth $90,000 in shared savings Pharmaโs choice: Obvious
The only question is whether we implement this before or after you die from something curable.
P.S. - Every pharmaceutical executive reading this is doing math right now. The smart ones are pivoting to cures. The others will be bankrupt within a decade. Greed finds a way.