Appendix o — ⚔️ The Two Wars
War on Humanity vs War on Disease - Only One Is Designed to Win
Humanity Fights Two Wars
War #1: Against Each Other (War on Humanity)
- Cost: $2.7 trillion/year
- Deaths: Direct war deaths plus ongoing conflicts
- Duration: All of human history
- Progress: Getting worse
- Designed to: Continue forever
War #2: Against Disease (War on Disease)
- Cost: $68 billion/year (medical research)
- Deaths: 55 million/year
- Duration: Also all of human history
- Progress: Glacial
- Designed to: Make pharma rich, not cure disease
The Key Difference
War on Humanity is designed to be profitable but endless.
War on Disease could be designed to actually win.
But it isn’t.
Why War on Humanity Never Ends
The Incentives
- Defense contractors profit from conflict, not peace
- Military budgets increase during war
- Weapons become obsolete, creating demand for new ones
- No one profits from ending war
The Result
We have:
- 13,000 nuclear weapons (can destroy Earth 20 times)
- Hypersonic missiles that can’t be stopped
- Autonomous weapons (Skynet approaching)
- Space weapons programs
- $2.7 trillion annual budget
But we still have wars.
Because the system isn’t designed to win. It’s designed to continue.
Why War on Disease Never Ends (Currently)
The Same Broken Incentives
- Pharma profits from treatment, not cures
- Chronic disease = recurring revenue
- Cures = one-time payment, then customer lost
- NIH bureaucrats profit from continued research grants
- No one in power profits from ending disease
The Result
We have:
- 50 years of cancer research, no universal cure
- $48 billion NIH budget, zero diseases eradicated
- 17 years to approve one drug
- 95% of diseases have no treatment
- Your kid dies while bureaucrats meet
Because this system also isn’t designed to win. It’s designed to continue.
What a War Designed to Win Looks Like
World War II
- Start: 1939
- End: 1945
- Duration: 6 years
- Result: Axis powers completely defeated
Why It Worked
- Clear victory condition (unconditional surrender)
- Massive resources deployed ($4 trillion in modern dollars)
- No profit motive (national survival)
- All unnecessary barriers removed
- Speed prioritized over bureaucracy
- Result: Victory
Manhattan Project (Part of WWII)
- Start: 1942
- End: 1945
- Duration: 3 years
- Cost: $2 billion (1945 dollars) = $30 billion today
- Result: Atomic bomb deployed, war ended
What War on Disease Designed to Win Would Look Like
The Oxford RECOVERY Model (But Bigger)
Duration: 10 years to cure major diseases Cost: $27 billion/year (1% of military budget) Method: Decentralized trials, anyone can participate Victory condition: Disease eradicated Profit motive: Removed (patients subsidized) Barriers: Removed (no FDA approval, just trial-and-learn) Speed: Results in months, not decades
The Outcome
| Disease | Current State | After 10 Years |
|---|---|---|
| Cancer | 10M deaths/year | Cured |
| Heart Disease | 18M deaths/year | Prevented |
| Alzheimer’s | 2.6M deaths/year | Cured |
| Diabetes | 2M deaths/year | Cured |
| All others | 22M deaths/year | Drastically reduced |
Total lives saved over 10 years: 200-300 million
Structure It Differently: Markets Not Ministries
Unlike previous “wars on” things, the War on Disease uses markets, not bureaucracies:
Traditional Government Wars:
- Create bureaucracy to manage (FDA, DEA, etc.)
- Bureaucracy needs problem to exist (job security)
- Result: Problem continues forever
War on Disease (DIH Model):
- Build no bureaucracy to preserve (use smart contracts)
- Pay for outcomes, not process
- Create competition between solutions, not monopoly
- Researchers get paid for curing diseases, not getting grants
- Minimize perverse incentives through market competition
Align the Incentives:
- Patients: Get subsidized treatments, not exploited
- Researchers: Get rewarded for cures, not papers
- Investors: Earn returns from health, not death
- Politicians: Get elected for results, not promises
Spillover Victory: Solving Everything Else
Once you can cure diseases, most social problems become solvable:
- War on Drugs: Addiction is a disease - actually cure it
- War on Poverty: Healthy people aren’t poor
- War on Terror: Mental health treatment prevents radicalization
- War on Crime: Cure antisocial personality disorder
Every social problem has biological roots. Fix the roots, and the problems disappear.
The Meta-Victory:
This becomes the first successful “War on” anything ever. Template for everything else (education, housing, etc.) The end of central planning’s credibility. The beginning of the market revolution.
The Math of Victory
War on Humanity (Current)
annual_spending = 2_700_000_000_000 # [1]
annual_deaths = 14_000_000 # [2]
victory_condition = None # No end state
years_to_victory = float('inf') # NeverWar on Disease (Current)
annual_spending = 68_000_000_000 # [3]
annual_deaths = 55_000_000 # [4]
victory_condition = None # No end state (pharma wants recurring revenue)
years_to_victory = float('inf') # NeverWar on Disease (Redesigned)
annual_spending = 27_000_000_000 # 1% of military
annual_deaths = 55_000_000 # Starting
victory_condition = "Eradicate major diseases"
years_to_victory = 10 # Achievable with Oxford model
deaths_prevented = 200_000_000 # Over 10 yearsWhy Nobody Fights War on Disease to Win
Follow the Money
If cancer is cured:
- Oncologists lose $200K/year jobs
- Pharma loses $100B/year in chemo sales
- Hospitals lose entire oncology departments
- Research grants disappear
- NIH budget justifications collapse
Result: The people with power to cure cancer profit from not curing it.
The Same Pattern as War
If war ended:
- Defense contractors lose $2.7T/year
- Generals lose justification for budgets
- Politicians lose campaign donations from defense lobby
- Jobs disappear
Result: The people with power to end war profit from continuing it.
The First War Designed to Be Won
The 1% Treaty + DIH + dFDA creates the first War on Disease designed for victory.
How It’s Different
Victory condition: Clearly defined (cure major diseases) Incentive: Cure disease → get paid (not treat disease → get paid) Barriers: Removed (no FDA, decentralized trials) Speed: Months to results (not decades) Scale: Everyone participates (not just 15%) Endpoint: Diseases eradicated, mission accomplished
Why It Will Work
- Patients are subsidized, so trials are profitable
- Fast results mean continuous improvement
- No regulatory bottleneck
- No profit from failure (only from cure)
- Clear metrics (deaths prevented)
The Historical Precedent
We’ve won wars before when we actually tried:
- Smallpox: Eradicated in 10 years once we committed
- Polio: Nearly eradicated through mass campaigns
- WWII: Won in 6 years with full commitment
We can win War on Disease. We just have to design it to be won.
The Choice
Option A: Continue Both Wars Forever
- Keep spending $11.4T on War on Humanity (never win)
- Keep spending $68B on War on Disease (never win)
- Nearly 30 million people die unnecessarily each year, forever
Option B: Win One War, Then the Other
- Redirect 1% of military to War on Disease
- Win War on Disease in 10 years (save 200M lives)
- With diseases cured, redirect savings to end War on Humanity
- Humanity finally wins both wars
The Bottom Line
The difference between a war that ends and a war that continues forever is how you design it.
- Design for profit → War continues
- Design for victory → War ends
We know how to design for victory. We did it with WWII, smallpox, and polio.
Now we do it with disease.
The 1% Treaty + DIH + dFDA: The first War on Disease designed to actually win.